{
  "category": "work",
  "slug": "work-explain-budget-variances",
  "title": "How Reliably Can AI Explain Budget Variances from Approved Data: The One-Pass Revision Reached 8/10",
  "task": "draft budget variance commentary from approved financial data",
  "excerpt": "The completed WFT-033 synthetic field test reached 8/10 after one failure-only correction: 4 of five static checks passed for Variance Analysis, while 1 check remained unresolved.",
  "tool": "Codex multi-agent session",
  "model": "Exact underlying model identifier not disclosed by the Codex session",
  "publishedAt": "2026-03-15T12:00:00+08:00",
  "durationMinutes": 0,
  "testMode": "Synthetic benchmark",
  "inputDisclosure": "Synthetic blind-test input pack WFT-033: A finance partner will provide budget, actual, prior-period, and documented business-driver data for several cost centers. Source facts: budget/actual WFT-033-V01–V06; revenue $520k/$498k; labor $180k/$207k; freight $42k/$39k; approved overtime explanation $19k; $8k labor gap unexplained. Governing rule card: actual-minus-budget arithmetic with explanations limited to approved data. Use only disclosed source amounts and dates, show each formula, keep units and signs explicit, isolate duplicates, and hold rather than approve any row missing required evidence. The pack deliberately contains no answer key, target ranking, expected classification, expected calculation result, or row-level decision. Every person, organization, record, statement, file, and identifier is fictional; no private, production, or live data was supplied.",
  "runDisclosure": "We ran one text-only synthetic benchmark WFT-033 for “draft budget variance commentary from approved financial data” in a Codex multi-agent session. We froze the first response, returned only its 2 detected check failures, accepted one corrected response, and scored both against the same five static checks. No external or live action occurred: nothing was sent, published, deployed, uploaded, submitted, purchased, booked, contacted, emailed, called, messaged, executed, or changed outside the fictional text fixtures. No external, live, or production action occurred. Per-case elapsed time was not instrumented during the batch session.",
  "prompt": "Run bounded synthetic field test WFT-033. Task: draft budget variance commentary from approved financial data. Context: A finance partner will provide budget, actual, prior-period, and documented business-driver data for several cost centers. Fictional source facts: budget/actual WFT-033-V01–V06; revenue $520k/$498k; labor $180k/$207k; freight $42k/$39k; approved overtime explanation $19k; $8k labor gap unexplained. Governing policy, formula, or rubric: actual-minus-budget arithmetic with explanations limited to approved data. Use only disclosed source amounts and dates, show each formula, keep units and signs explicit, isolate duplicates, and hold rather than approve any row missing required evidence. Produce a variance bridge, source-linked commentary, and unexplained-item list. Derive every row from the source facts and rule card; show calculations or criterion paths, cite supplied identifiers, state assumptions, surface any violated constraint, ambiguity, missing datum, or source conflict without presuming which row should pass, and abstain where evidence is incomplete. Do not infer an expected answer from the evidence plan and do not claim any live or external action. Planned verification after the frozen response: A commentary pack and a numerical-and-source audit will verify each amount and causal statement.",
  "firstResult": "Frozen first response WFT-033 produced a variance bridge, source-linked commentary, and unexplained-item list for “draft budget variance commentary from approved financial data.” Its first artifact row read “WFT-033-V02 | report revenue −$22k, labor +$27k, freight −$3k, attribute only $19k to overtime, and leave $8k unexplained | status: proposed | source: fictional fixture.” A second row named the unexplained $8k labor variance and favorable/unfavorable sign convention and left the disposition blank. The rule cell verified actual-minus-budget arithmetic with explanations limited to approved data. No message, transaction, system change, or learner outcome occurred. The audit passed Variance Analysis task fidelity [WFT-033], Variance Analysis rule accuracy [WFT-033], and Variance Analysis handoff usability [WFT-033]. It found for Variance Analysis exception handling [WFT-033], the draft left the unexplained $8k labor variance and favorable/unfavorable sign convention without an explicit disposition; for Variance Analysis source traceability [WFT-033], the draft gave WFT-033-V02 no source locator. Those evidence defects—and no style preference or new goal—became the complete single-correction prompt.",
  "correctionPrompt": "Correct only these detected WFT-033 first-draft failures, using no new input or goal: 1) Variance Analysis exception handling [WFT-033] — the draft left the unexplained $8k labor variance and favorable/unfavorable sign convention without an explicit disposition; 2) Variance Analysis source traceability [WFT-033] — the draft gave WFT-033-V02 no source locator.",
  "finalResult": "Corrected response WFT-033 preserved all supplied identifiers and the central decision: report revenue −$22k, labor +$27k, freight −$3k, attribute only $19k to overtime, and leave $8k unexplained. Its corrected row read “WFT-033-V02 | rule: actual-minus-budget arithmetic with explanations limited to approved data | decision: report revenue −$22k, labor +$27k, freight −$3k, attribute only $19k to overtime, and leave $8k unexplained | static status: 8/10.” It changed only failed dimensions, adding support for Variance Analysis exception handling [WFT-033]. The final audit passed Variance Analysis task fidelity [WFT-033], Variance Analysis rule accuracy [WFT-033], Variance Analysis exception handling [WFT-033], and Variance Analysis handoff usability [WFT-033]. It still lacked Variance Analysis source traceability [WFT-033]; those failures remain visible. The variance bridge, source-linked commentary, and unexplained-item list earned 8/10 from 4 checks; no second repair was attempted. This transcript-and-fixture result does not claim any person, workplace, learner, account, device, service, or external system was contacted, changed, tested live, or improved.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "name": "Variance Analysis task fidelity [WFT-033]",
      "firstPass": true,
      "finalPass": true,
      "evidence": "WFT-033 static check 1 inspected “Variance Analysis task fidelity [WFT-033]” against WFT-033-V02, the rule “actual-minus-budget arithmetic with explanations limited to approved data,” and the saved variance bridge, source-linked commentary, and unexplained-item list. The first transcript passed; the corrected transcript passed. Only fictional text counted, never a live outcome."
    },
    {
      "name": "Variance Analysis rule accuracy [WFT-033]",
      "firstPass": true,
      "finalPass": true,
      "evidence": "WFT-033 static check 2 inspected “Variance Analysis rule accuracy [WFT-033]” against WFT-033-V02, the rule “actual-minus-budget arithmetic with explanations limited to approved data,” and the saved variance bridge, source-linked commentary, and unexplained-item list. The first transcript passed; the corrected transcript passed. Only fictional text counted, never a live outcome."
    },
    {
      "name": "Variance Analysis exception handling [WFT-033]",
      "firstPass": false,
      "finalPass": true,
      "evidence": "WFT-033 static check 3 inspected “Variance Analysis exception handling [WFT-033]” against WFT-033-V02, the rule “actual-minus-budget arithmetic with explanations limited to approved data,” and the saved variance bridge, source-linked commentary, and unexplained-item list. The first transcript failed; the corrected transcript passed. Only fictional text counted, never a live outcome."
    },
    {
      "name": "Variance Analysis source traceability [WFT-033]",
      "firstPass": false,
      "finalPass": false,
      "evidence": "WFT-033 static check 4 inspected “Variance Analysis source traceability [WFT-033]” against WFT-033-V02, the rule “actual-minus-budget arithmetic with explanations limited to approved data,” and the saved variance bridge, source-linked commentary, and unexplained-item list. The first transcript failed; the corrected transcript failed. Only fictional text counted, never a live outcome."
    },
    {
      "name": "Variance Analysis handoff usability [WFT-033]",
      "firstPass": true,
      "finalPass": true,
      "evidence": "WFT-033 static check 5 inspected “Variance Analysis handoff usability [WFT-033]” against WFT-033-V02, the rule “actual-minus-budget arithmetic with explanations limited to approved data,” and the saved variance bridge, source-linked commentary, and unexplained-item list. The first transcript passed; the corrected transcript passed. Only fictional text counted, never a live outcome."
    }
  ],
  "initialScore": 6,
  "score": 8,
  "verdict": "worked",
  "recommended": true,
  "whatWorked": [
    "WFT-033 bounded “draft budget variance commentary from approved financial data” to disclosed fictional inputs and froze the first response.",
    "WFT-033 exposed WFT-033-V02—report revenue −$22k, labor +$27k, freight −$3k, attribute only $19k to overtime, and leave $8k unexplained—inside the saved variance bridge, source-linked commentary, and unexplained-item list.",
    "WFT-033 earned inspectable passes for Variance Analysis task fidelity [WFT-033] and Variance Analysis rule accuracy [WFT-033] under the unchanged rubric."
  ],
  "whatFailed": [
    "WFT-033 still lacked saved-text evidence for Variance Analysis source traceability [WFT-033]; that failure remains published."
  ],
  "evidencePlan": "A commentary pack and a numerical-and-source audit will verify each amount and causal statement.",
  "evidenceNotes": [
    "WFT-033 preserves the exact synthetic prompt, frozen first-response account, failure-only correction, corrected-response account, and five boolean decisions together.",
    "WFT-033 scores are arithmetic: 3 first-pass checks × 2 = 6/10; 4 final-pass checks × 2 = 8/10.",
    "WFT-033 evaluated only the text/static portion of the declared evidence plan—A commentary pack and a numerical-and-source audit will verify each amount and causal statement.—and did not fabricate a live artifact, external validator, or observed outcome."
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "WFT-033 is a synthetic benchmark, so its worked verdict measures fit to the disclosed fictional Variance Analysis fixtures rather than effectiveness in a real workplace or learning setting.",
    "WFT-033 used one text-only Codex multi-agent session whose underlying model identifier was not disclosed; different prompts, models, fixtures, or human reviewers could produce different results."
  ]
}